FA Cup quarter-final predictions: West Ham to wrap up Wembley berth with victory over Leeds

Eight teams battle it out to make the Wembley semi-finals. Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his betting insight across the matches.

Chelsea vs Port Vale, Saturday 5.30pm

Port Vale are 28/1 to win this match in 90 minutes. It would be one of the biggest upsets in FA Cup history if League One's bottom side could somehow dispatch Chelsea.

It's a terrible betting heat from an outright perspective but the cards market does appeal. Chelsea have a big discipline problem. Only Tottenham and Brighton have been shown more yellow cards in the Premier League this season than Chelsea (71) and no club have had more players sent off than the Blues (7). Such is the gigantic mismatch between the teams, Chelsea's card expectancy is low in this game, with 7/4 with Sky Bet on offer from them to pick up over 1.5 cards. It's rare we get to back Chelsea at these kinds of prices in this market.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0

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Southampton vs Arsenal, Saturday 8pm

Southampton could be sitting ducks to the Arsenal set-piece machine. They've hit some form in the Championship but their record defending set pieces is abysmal. Across the last 21 games, no team is conceding more shots per game from set pieces than Saints - a whopping 5.5. They also lead the charts for most goals conceded via this route with 11 goals shipped in those last 21 games.

Cristhian Mosquera has started the last two FA Cup ties, and with a Champions League trip to Sporting to come in midweek, it's likely he'll get the nod again with Mikel Arteta freshening up his team. He had a shot in both those victories over Mansfield and Wigan. Such is the weakness of Saints on that side of the game, Mosquera is worth backing to have two or more shots at 2/1 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3

West Ham vs Leeds, Sunday 4.30pm

There's a really interesting dynamic to this game, as a chance to make an FA Cup semi-final doesn't come around often for these clubs, but neither manager will be too disheartened if they get knocked out based on their situation in the Premier League.

I'm going to back West Ham here, though, on the draw no bet at 10/11 with Sky Bet as this Leeds team away from home aren't a team to trust. They've won just twice in 90 minutes in 18 away games this season - against Derby and Wolves - and were even knocked out by Sheffield Wednesday in the Carabao Cup on penalties. Daniel Farke's men are competitive in games and very well organised, but they just lack killer instinct and quality in the final third to open up a tight game.

And although West Ham remain in the bottom three, under Nuno Espirito Santo they have been operating as an upwardly mobile Premier League team for a few months now. They can book a spot at Wembley.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

(c) Sky Sports 2026: FA Cup quarter-final predictions: West Ham to wrap up Wembley berth with victory over Leeds