Demand for three and four bedrooms in Jersey is dropping, while the need for smaller more affordable one and two bed homes continues to outstrip supply.
A survey last summer asked islanders about their accommodation requirements over the next three years.
It has found around 1600 smaller dwellings (one and two bedroom) are needed.
Meanwhile, it's anticipated there will be a shortfall of 980 larger properties. That is compared to just 70 in the Housing Needs report for 2019-2021.
In that time, the average paid for a four bedroom house has risen by 42% to £1.3 million.
Overall, the shortage of smaller homes isn't as great as it was previously (dropping by 1,160), but it's estimated the requirement for one-bed will more than double, from 310 to 750.
Additionally, 910 more accommodation units will be needed for people looking to buy a property as their primary residence, especially two-bedroom homes.
However, the Future Housing Needs survey was taken before the recent hikes in mortgage interest rates, which will likely have impacted on some people's intentions to buy.
"While some households may no longer look for property in the owner-occupied sector, most of these households will still require property of some kind. Therefore, while overall totals should be largely unaffected by these changes, the apportionment of owner occupier and qualified rental demand in 2023 to 2025 may be different to the proportions described in this report." - Statistics Jersey.
Housing Minister David Warr
Housing Minister Deputy David Warr has been giving us his reaction to the findings:
"One of the challenges is trying to build the right types of properties and the right types of homes going forward for our community.
"We have a States-owned entity doing that, but the private sector has to adjust accordingly as well."
The survey says, if inward migration stays at the predicted +700 a year, there will be a shortfall of 220 registered properties, especially one-bedroom.
However, if Jersey only sees +500, the number of available properties will be balanced. On the other hand, if the island sees +1000 people moving here, the shortfall will sit at 550.
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