New data suggests Jersey doesn't just need more homes – it needs more of the right homes.
The biggest challenge facing the island over the next three years in respect of housing might not be the lack of homes overall, but a shortage of the right kind of properties.
A new assessment of future housing need predicts a net shortfall of around 310 homes before any new properties are built.
However, the report - compiled by Statistics Jersey - suggests that figure masks a much bigger imbalance in the housing market.
Forecasts show an expected shortage of 1,510 mostly smaller homes, in contrast to a surplus of around 1,200 larger properties.
The report combines population and household projections with responses from the 2025 Jersey Opinions and Lifestyle Survey which asked people about their intended living situation.
The findings suggest demand is highest for one and two-bedroom homes, likely driven by the inability to rent or buy less-modest sized home.
In the owner-occupier market, there is a predicted shortfall of 820 two-bedroom homes, and an overall shortfall of 190 properties.
Applying affordability criteria (lower-quartile house prices and borrowing up to six times household income) puts home ownership beyond the reach of many, making them more likely to stay renting or living with parents.
As a result, the predicted shortage of owner-occupied homes disappears and becomes a surplus of around 640 properties.
At the same time, demand for rental accommodation increases significantly, creating a shortfall of around 450 qualified rental homes.
The report assumes a net inward migration of around 400 people a year. Under this scenario, availability of non-qualified accommodation is expected to remain broadly balanced. Should it double to 800 per year there would be shortfall of around 380 properties.
The findings are intended to support government planning and policy development.
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